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I’ve made a number of minor investment errors in 2024, but I’ve also made a big one that really stands out. Worse, I’ve made it repeatedly. Now I want to avoid making it again in 2025.
The biggest errors are often made with the best intentions. Personally, I’ve always been a fan of buying good companies on bad news. That allows me to pick up their shares at a discounted price, and typically grab a higher yield too.
Then all I have to do is be patient, and wait for the company to pick itself up, brush itself down, and crack on. It’s worked well, by and large.
I’ve learned a lot from my JD Sports shares
But I applied my strategy to FTSE 100 trainer and athleisurewear chain JD Sports Fashion (LSE: JD), and messed up.
A staggering £1.8bn was wiped off the JD Sports share price on 4 January, after the board issued a profit warning following disappointing Christmas trading. I’d wanted to buy this growth stock for years, so filled my boots on 22 January and thought myself a wise old bird.
But as I’ve learned this year, all too often that first profit warning is merely a smoke signal. Further trouble often lies around the track.
It’s been a rough year for JD Sports, as it lurches from one problem to another. While I couldn’t have foreseen every challenges it would face, I should have been more circumspect.
The slump at key trading partner and massive global brand Nike is none of JD’s doing, but it’s still taken a beating as a result.
I’m still learning the art of patience
The same applies to Labour’s hike to employer’s National Insurance contributions in the Budget, and the inflation-busting 6.7% minimum wage hike. Chairman Andy Higginson has warned these will squeeze margins and force it to push up prices.
We’re also waiting to see if, when and how US President-elect Donald Trump’s mooted trade tariffs will hit JD Sports.
I couldn’t have foreseen these three issues but I should have realised last year’s poor Christmas was a warning shot. The cost-of-living crisis has dogged consumers all year. Also, I assumed trainers would remain in vogue forever, but now I’m told some are questioning this assumption too (although not everyone and it’s undeniable they remain the dominant shoe choice for so many people).
In one respect, buying after the profit warning did help me. I’m down ‘just’ 16.43%, while the JD Sports share price has slumped 44.49% over 12 months. With the stock trading at 7.93 times earnings, I think there’s massive scope for a recovery.
My mistake was not to dig deeper into that profit warning. I simply saw a cheaper stock, and dived in. My bad.
I made similar errors by purchasing Aston Martin Lagonda, Burberry Group, Diageo and Ocado Group. Their profit slips also turned out to be a taster for further troubles. There’s a pattern here, and I plan to break it in 2025. Just because a stock has plunged, doesn’t mean it can’t plunge again. I’ll be more patient before I buy troubled stocks, as well as afterwards.
