When we invest, we’re generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, long term BP Plastics Holding Bhd. (KLSE:BPPLAS) shareholders have enjoyed a 82% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 6.3% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven’t been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 10% in the last year, including dividends.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
View our latest analysis for BP Plastics Holding Bhd
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, BP Plastics Holding Bhd achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.8% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 13% per year, over the same period. So it’s fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That’s not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on BP Plastics Holding Bhd’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of BP Plastics Holding Bhd, it has a TSR of 136% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
BP Plastics Holding Bhd shareholders gained a total return of 10% during the year. But that was short of the market average. It’s probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 19% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that BP Plastics Holding Bhd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…
