When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you’d generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Village Super Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:VLGE.A) share price is up 37% in the last five years, that’s less than the market return. On a brighter note, more newer shareholders are probably rather content with the 20% share price gain over twelve months.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
Check out our latest analysis for Village Super Market
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Village Super Market achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 17% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 7% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 9.35.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It’s probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Village Super Market’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Village Super Market’s TSR for the last 5 years was 67%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Village Super Market’s TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 25%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year’s return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 11%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with Village Super Market , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
