On Monday, BTIG analysts maintained a Neutral rating on Vacasa Inc (NASDAQ:VCSA) following the announcement of its acquisition by Casago, a private company. The acquisition, which is expected to be finalized between the first and second quarters of 2025, values Vacasa at approximately $129 million in equity and around $135 million in enterprise value.
The offer price is set at $5.02 per share in cash, representing a premium to the current market cap of $85.55 million. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has shown a significant 7.93% return over the last week as investors react to the news.
BTIG’s analysis suggests that the acquisition price reflects a full valuation for Vacasa, considering its declining revenue and persistent EBITDA losses. InvestingPro data reveals the company’s challenging financial position, with an EBITDA loss of $31.16 million and revenue declining by 18.01% in the last twelve months. The company’s overall financial health score is rated as WEAK, supporting BTIG’s assessment.
Vacasa had undergone an extensive process to explore strategic alternatives, indicating to BTIG that the likelihood of a competing offer is slim. The analysts do not see the online travel agencies (OTAs) as a good fit for a potential counterbid.
The firm’s checks have revealed ongoing challenges for Vacasa, with a significant drop in property listings and a sharp decline in website traffic, which fell by more than 30% in the fourth quarter. Despite the acquisition, BTIG notes that the transaction does not alter their current estimates for Vacasa.
The acquisition comes at a time when Vacasa has been facing operational headwinds, as evidenced by the decrease in its business metrics. However, the company has indicated that it has conducted a thorough exploration of its options before agreeing to the acquisition offer from Casago.
BTIG’s continued Neutral stance on Vacasa stock indicates their view that, despite the acquisition, the fundamental outlook for the company remains unchanged. The acquisition is poised to provide an exit for Vacasa’s shareholders at a valuation that BTIG considers fair given the company’s financial performance and market position.
For a deeper understanding of Vacasa’s valuation and 13 additional key insights, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which provides detailed analysis of the company’s financial health and market position.
In other recent news, Vacasa, a leading vacation rental management platform, is set for a significant corporate change. The company recently announced a strategic merger with Casago, a privately-held vacation rental property management firm.
The merger, expected to finalize between the first and second quarter of 2025, will see Casago acquiring all outstanding shares of Vacasa at a price of $5.02 per share. This development prompted Needham analysts to downgrade Vacasa’s stock rating from Buy to Hold.
Vacasa, with a current market capitalization of $85.5 million, generated nearly $950 million in revenue over the last twelve months. Despite a 19% year-over-year decrease in gross booking value and a decline in homes on the platform, the company managed to secure nearly 400,000 guest reservations, generating over $300 million for homeowners in Q3 2024.
Needham has revised its stock price target for Vacasa to $3.25, down from $5.00, due to a reduction in Vacasa’s estimated EBITDA. Despite projections of a further 15% decrease in Vacasa’s gross booking value for 2025, Needham believes Vacasa can reach an EBITDA breakeven point through cost reductions and operational efficiencies.
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