First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 14% in the last month. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. In fact, the share price is 195% higher today. So while it’s never fun to see a share price fall, it’s important to look at a longer time horizon. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
Now it’s worth having a look at the company’s fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
View our latest analysis for First Solar
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last half decade, First Solar became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the First Solar share price is up 139% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 40% each year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 34% average annual increase in the share price (over three years, again). That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn’t changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It’s probably worth noting we’ve seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
First Solar shareholders gained a total return of 3.6% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 24% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with First Solar , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
