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I’ve just been running my eye over Tesco (LSE: TSCO) shares and found it a soothing experience.
I needed that, because my own portfolio has been wracked by volatility lately. The FTSE 100 maybe be near all-time highs but my stock picks are darting every which way.
My big February winner was Rolls-Royce holdings, up 25%. My stake in Lloyds Banking Group is up 17% over the month.
Sadly, I also hold Glencore and Diageo, which fell 12% and 14% respectively in February. Some days I don’t know whether I’m winning or losing.
Can this FTSE stock keep winning?
I don’t hold Tesco, but wish I did. Watching its steady, solid progress is like being given a cosy back rub after a stressful day.
The Tesco share price climbed 4.3% in February. Over 12 months, it’s up 36%. It’s up 50% over two years and 65% over five years. Nice.
There have been ups and downs along the way, but overall its trajectory is soothingly upwards. So should I add this Steady Eddie to my portfolio of volatile boy racers?
Today, Tesco trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3. That’s pretty steady. Just a tad above fair value.
The trailing yield is a little low at 3.2%. That’s below the FTSE 100 average of 3.5%. It’s guess that’s what happens when a stock climbs steadily upwards.
The yield is smoothly climbing upwards too. It’s forecast to hit 3.51% in 2025 then 3.86% in 2026. It’s covered exactly twice. Bliss. My back muscles are relaxing just to think of it.
Stock markets have been bouncing around lately, as Donald Trump threatens trade wars. Does Tesco care? Nope. It doesn’t sell anything to the US. The group pulled out of the US back in 2013, after its Fresh & Easy convenience chain flopped. It’s not taken that kind of risk since.
However, that is a reminder of the dark days, and Philip Clarke. But he left in September 2014. Since then, there’s been a distinct lack of drama.
The dividend is perfectly covered
There are risks. To a degree, its calmness is an illusion, because Tesco operates in an intensively competitive sector. Aldi and Lidl continue to give it a run for its money.
Tesco’s market share is back up to 28.5%, according to Kantar. That followed 19 successive periods of gains. It remains leagues ahead of second-placed Sainsbury’s at 15.9%. However, it may struggle to push on from here.
Inflation is proving sticky, which will push up costs. There’s still a risk the UK could fall into recession. Labour’s national insurance hikes are a real bother. As a huge employer, initial reports suggested this could cost Tesco £1bn. In January, CEO Ken Murphy put it at a more modest £250m.
Margins remain perenially tight at 4.1%. They’re expected to ease up to 4.4% this year.
I’m not naive. No stock can stay this calm forever. After its solid run, it could easily slow from here. There will be storms, one day. I still think Tesco shares are well worth considering for long-term income and growth.
