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I first bought JD Sports Fashion (LSE: JD) shares in January last year believing I was picking up a top-tier growth stock on the cheap.
I saw its share price dip as a buying opportunity. When it fell again, I averaged down. The third time I bought the stock, I convinced myself it couldn’t go any lower. Yet here I am, sitting on a 28% loss.
So what went wrong? And more importantly, is there still a case for holding – or even buying more?
Can this FTSE 100 loser be a winner again?
JD Sports has taken a beating and investors like me have felt the pain. The retailer has now posted two disappointing Christmas trading updates in a row, sending the share price tumbling.
Cost-of-living pressures have hit consumer spending, particularly on discretionary items like trainers and sportswear. Pricing power appears weaker than before, amid heavy discounting.
This once-mighty FTSE 100 growth stock, which was a darling of the index, is now down 33% over the past year and a staggering 57% over two . It’s been a brutal collapse. And I jumped in while the bricks were still falling.
JD Sports shares look dirt cheap with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of just 6.5. That’s less than half the average FTSE P/E of around 15. It’s also far below historical levels. But cheap shares don’t always mean a bargain.
Profitability is under pressure and growth has slowed. Its expansion strategy looks promising, as it makes a big push into the US after buying retailer Hibbett for $1.1bn. But international trading comes with new risks these days, notably the threat of trade tariffs. Margins are also being squeezed as JD discounts to boost sales.
So while the stock may seem undervalued, recovery’s far from guaranteed.
Can this growth stock grow again?
Despite its troubles, JD Sports still has strengths. It has a dominant position in the UK. The US market could still be a game-changer, if it gets its execution right.
The company also has strong relationships with big brands like Nike and Adidas and the athleisure trend doesn’t appear to be going away, despite some doubters. If JD Sports can muddle through its current challenges, it could rebound strongly.
The 15 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts have produced a median target of 124p. If correct, that’s an increase of almost 60% from today. A quite staggering return, if it happens. I think 2025 will be too politically and economically bumpy for that to happen, but we’ll see.
Critics say the board hasn’t quite woken up to the scale of the challenge it faces, or drawn up a convincing turnaround strategy.
So where does that leave me? One part’s easy. I’m not crystallising that 28% loss. I still believe in its recovery potential.
The question is whether I have the nerve to buy more. The shares are volatile, and any further setbacks could send them even lower.
I might regret it one day but I’m not buying. I’ve thrown enough money at this stock for now. I don’t think it’s game over, but JD Sports faces a mighty battle to turn things round. I’ll sit tight.
