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As global stock markets reel from the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff policies, ISA investors may find themselves at a crossroads. While the sell-off has erased trillions from equity markets, it could also present rare opportunities for those willing to navigate the chaos.
What we’ve learned so far
The tariffs, ranging from 10% to as high as 54% on imports from countries around the world, present huge disruptions to globally supply chains and hammer companies reliant on overseas production.
In short, the implications of Trump’s drive to eliminate trade deficits remain a looming threat. The administration’s goal of zero trade imbalance introduces persistent uncertainty for companies exposed to tariffs.
The response and resilience of individual stocks has reflected their exposure to these tariffs and the potential impact on demand for their goods and services — after all, these tariffs will likely be very inflationary in the US.
We’ve also seen retaliatory tariffs from China and a willingness to negotiate from the likes of Vietnam and Cambodia. The impact of these negotiations have actually been very interesting. Companies like RH — formerly Restoration Hardware — have jumped from their lows.
However, the broader market continues to move down on the fears that these tariffs, if not reduced immediately, will cause irreparable damage to supply chains and break demand.
Something’s got to give
High-profile investors like Bill Ackman have voiced concerns about the economic fallout this policy could trigger. Moreover, despite the significant impact on industries such as textiles and electronics, the reality is that it would be near-impossible to reshore these jobs to the US. For one, the average salary in Vietnam is just 7% of that in the US.
For stocks to recover meaningfully, political dynamics would need to shift. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests a long-term strategy to “pry open” foreign markets, history shows that such aggressive measures often soften over time. Investors betting on a reversal could be positioning themselves for substantial gains if tariffs are scaled back.
A rare chance to get rich?
Stocks rarely sell off with such vigour. And as we all know, buying when others are fearful and stocks being depressed can magnify long-term gains. In other words, this could be a rare chance to buy high-potential stocks at lower prices, offering an opportunity to build wealth over the long run, and maybe even get rich.
One UK stock that’s understandably suffering is Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LSE:SMT). The Baillie Gifford-managed trust has seen its share price fall 20% over a month.
The FTSE 100 investment trust is very popular with investors, providing access to US-listed stocks and unlisted companies like SpaceX. Over the long run, the stock’s performed well, however it’s highly volatile given its exposure to tech and because of gearing (borrowing to amplify returns). While gearing can boost gains in rising markets, it also magnifies losses during downturns. This is a real risk to bear in mind.
Nonetheless, assuming a normalisation of US trade policy over the long run, I’d expect to see Scottish Mortgage stock outperform. It’s highly volatile, but picking the stock up at this price could be highly beneficial. It’s certainly a stock I’m looking to top up.
