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QinetiQ Group (LSE: QQ.) shocked FTSE 250 investors with a profit warning on 17 March. But is it set to bounce back?
In a trading update, the defence and security specialist lowered its full-year organic revenue growth forecast for 2025 to about 2%. At Q3 time in January, it had told us to expect “high single digit organic revenue growth“.
It sweetened the revenue downgrade a bit by announcing “an extension to our share buyback programme of up to £200m over the next two years“.
Up and down
The QinetiQ share price fell back to… about where it was before it rose in the week or two before the update. Despite a bit of volatility, it’s still up 10% over the past 12 months.
The board clearly thinks its own shares are worth buying now as a good use of surplus cash. I think long-term investors might profit from considering the same.
Tough US business
The company expects an impairment charge of around £140m this year “due to the market backdrop and operational performance in the US“. And there should be one-off charges adding up to around £35m-£40m, again due to US operations.
It all leads analysts to predict a loss per share for the current year. But beyond this one-off year, we could be looking at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.5 in 2026 and falling.
There are clear dangers. But those considering buying for long-term growth might see the share price dip as a possible opportunity.
More of the same?
I’m sticking with the same general sector for my second pick, Chemring Group (LSE: CHG). The company, which specialises in decoy technology to protect against missiles, hasn’t really been upset by trade war threats so far.
The shares dipped on the back of FY results in December. That’s even though we saw an 8% rise in revenue and a 13% boost for the dividend. However, underlying earnings per share (EPS) fell 4%.
Net debt jumped to £52.8m from £14.4m a year prior. Still, a year is a short time frame for such a long-term business. And Chemring still reported net debt to underlying EBITDA of only 0.56 times, which seems fine.
The share price started 2025 weakly. But since February, it has turned back up again. We’re looking at a 17% year-to-date gain in 2025.
Uncertain times
Chemring faces much of the same uncertainty and risk as QinetiQ. But it also shares the same attraction for me — decent long-term growth prospects.
In this case, broker forecasts show EPS climbing 75% between 2024 and 2027. That could be enough to push the P/E down under 14 by then. And it’s without the short-term hurdles that QinetiQ faces this year.
At results time, CEO Michael Ord said the “outlook for global defence markets is increasingly robust, with strong growth expected over the next decade“. And he spoke of an “ambition to increase the group’s annual revenue to c.£1bn by 2030“.
It’s got to be a FTSE 250 growth stock worth considering, surely.
